I took a little time and researched the polls and the electoral college. I have compiled my predictions, based on the most recent polls, of how the electoral college votes will go after the November 2nd election.

Maine and Nevada allow their electoral college votes to be divided based on a district system. The other 48 states and the District of Columbia have a winner take all system for electoral college votes. Colorado has a measure on the ballot to move to a district based system. Maine could go either way. I gave the state to Bush but gave one district to Kerry, this gives Bush 3 votes and Kerry 1. I don’t think that Nevada will be close enough to split it’s vote. Since Colorado is currently a "winner takes all" state I gave all 9 of Colorado’s votes to the current winner (Bush).

Out of the 51 electoral districts (50 states + DC), Bush is projected to win 29, Kerry will win 21, and Maine will be split.  Yet, out of a total of 538 votes it looks like there is no way the final tally can be more than 15 votes (less than 3%).  My projection has Kerry winning the electoral college by a mere 8 votes (less than 1.5%).

It is likely that there will be recounts and court battles after this election. It could get ugly. So, for extra credit I am going to also make predictions as to where it is going to get ugly.

Alaska (3) and Hawaii (4) will be the last states to report since they have the latest timezone. However Alaska is solidly Bush and Hawaii is solidly Kerry, so there shouldn’t be a cliff-hanger in that sense. Following along the same lines of timezone drama, Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5) are the most westward swing states. I don’t think anyone will be able to make any attempt at calling the election until those states are reporting. They both could go either way. They both have 5 Electoral votes. They both could be the deciding factor on election night.

The 2000 election taught us that it is not all over on election night though. While I don’t think Florida will be ground zero again, voting procedures and policies will most likely be the focus of lawsuits in multiple states after the polls have closed and the results have been estimated. The next president could well be decided by the Supreme Court again, though not until we watch lawsuit after lawsuit and appeal after appeal.

Many states already have lawsuits and appeals related to the election active in the courts. The most notable of which is probably Colorado (9). A citizen has filed a lawsuit to try and block the measure on the ballot that would move Colorado’s electoral distribution from a “winner takes all” system to a district system. Under the proposed measure, 5 of the 9 votes would go to the candidate who wins 55% of the popular vote in the state. the rest of the votes would be divied up by district results. MoveOn.org has targeted a last minute ad campaign in Colorado to try and gain some more votes there. If the election is close, Colorado could be very pivitol.

I also have high hopes for Pennsylvania (21). It is a divided state that is currently a statistical tie. Pennsylvania has Philadelphia, and Philly has an inner-city population that is known for organizing (KWRU). It is also the state I think could be most effective by Sean (Puffy) Combs’ Vote or Die campaign. Philly is hip-hop, and Philly is undecided. There is also a large population of college students in Philly that may be first-time voters. I don’t know as much about Pittsburgh, but I am giving Pennsylvania to Kerry.

So here is the summary of my predictions:

• John Kerry will win the Electoral College by less than 5%
• The election results will be contested in multiple states
• Maine will split it’s electoral college votes
• Colorado is the state most likely to end up in the Supreme Court
• Pennsylvania is the state most likely to get a visit from Jesse Jackson
• Other Tennessean’s will be wrong